KATRINA DELIVERS...SEAFOOD...?
Driving back into the office tonight, I found this little creature running around in the driveway....

It was about 12 inches across. I bet it looked weird to anybody watching me snapping pictures of this thing like crazed papparrazi.

I want to know - did Katrina really carry this crab 15 miles inland? Or do crabs thrive in freshwater lagoons?

CATEGORY 3 - NEW ORLEANS SPARED...
Whew.

KATRINA LINKS YOU CAN USE:
New Orleans Radar - you'll know it's bad when this link goes down
Mobile Alabama Radar - just in case

Cool, LIVE webcam of the corner of St. Charles & Napoleon in the Quarter (still working as of 2:30 AM EST)
Other webcams here and here.

The economic impact of a hurricane hit in Louisana is bad enough. Fact: New Orleans is the largest seaport in the U.S., with docks that line 50 miles of the Mississippi River. The river in that section passes a lot of sediment and must be continuously dredged for service. Tigerhawk has an impressive analysis.

Louisiana has a LOT of oil refineries....sigh. Gas prices are already high enough....

** Link credits to instapundit and Brendon Loy.

UPDATE:

NOLA Radar went offline around 9AM - last image:

LILEKS NAILS IT....

Ah – the TV guys are broadcasting from Baton Rouge. And they’re saying it’ll hit in the morning. Meanwhile, watch out for tornados! It’s like watching a feed from Pompeii describing how the shower of pumice should stop around two, and choking clouds of poison gas and lava flows will start around five.

Read the whole thing.

KATRINA - KILLER STORM OF THE CENTURY?
The National Weather Service has issued a warning of apocalyptic proportions:

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA......DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALLFAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED....

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOODFRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCHAS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

See that? THAT???

When I was working in West Palm Beach last year, my client at the time was subjected to TWO hurricanes in as many weeks. Category 3. I left. It tore up both hotels I had been staying in. When I returned to the most whole hotel the next week, I got a free dehumidier to dry up the soaked carpeting in my room.

There are some storms you ride out, and some you flee. You can't ride this out.

Oh, but that doesn't mean somebody isn't going to try:

"We have never evacuated for a hurricane and probably never will. This isn't
bravado; it's just due to the logistical impossibility of evacuating 28 animals,
some of whom are uncatchably feral, and I have no intention of holing up
somewhere safe and dry while the animals cower in terror and go hungry. Besides,
we couldn't evacuate this time even if we wanted to; we're contractually
prevented from taking our cheapo rental car more than 25 miles from New Orleans."

You have got to be kidding me. I don't know where this guy lives but I'd put this post next to the word "foolish" in the dictionary. Not allowed to drive more than 25 miles from New Orleans? I'm sure the cheapo rental car agency would rather you drive it out of there than leave it submerged under 20 feet of brackish filthy water, especially since your sorry @## won't be around to pay the rental.

As for the animals, I love 'em, too, but you need to implement triage. Grab as many of the ones you can catch, cram them in the car, and go. The feral ones will likely make do anyway.

It reminds me of the interview of the old man before hurricane Ivan hit Mobile, Alabma: "I've been here for 80 years and I'm not going to run away now." And then he was never seen again.

Not that it matters at this point. If you haven't left by now, you're pretty much on your own. You can either whole up in your house or office building, or head for the makeshift shelter in the Superdome. Either way you have to hope Katrina doesn't do a direct hit on the city.

I've been studying Superdome links (like here and here), but I can't determine if the building design will withstand a Category 5 hurricane. The wind braces described in the design sound reassuring, as well as the fact that its "the largest clear span steel structure in the world."

But if the water pours into the city in the midst of the hurricane, the flooding could trap the occupants inside. In a giant, dark, powerless room, holding over 100,000 people with exits designed for less than half that number, and a massive storm beating the building in around you, it sounds like a perfect recipe for a nightmare.

UPDATE:

Word came in that 'Poppy Z Brite' bugged out after all. Good. Although word is that he might have called it right anyway. Still can't be too careful.

OH, NO.....
Just got word that Katrina has targeted New Orleans for her next landfall, and she's now a Category Five Hurricane.

This is serious.

A hurricane strike in New Orleans should be considered more serious than an earthquake in LA. New Orleans is below sea level. It is surrounded by dikes and levees, and requires massive pumps running constantly just to keep rainwater and groundwater out of the city. A breach in any of the levees should be considered a serious event. Hurricanes carve out channels in miles of land; cutting through a levee should be no big deal to a Cat 5. If that happens, with the storm surge New Orleans could see over 20 feet of water on Bourbon Street. Combined with high winds that would pretty much wipe out major portions of the city.

If you're reading this, and you live in New Orleans, don't take chances. Leave now.

AFTERMATH...
Katrina caught everybody by surprise: (1) As soon as it went ashore near Ft. Lauderdale it swept southward past Miami (and me); (2) It strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category One as soon as it came ashore - totally tossing out the rule that hurricanes start to dissipate when they hit land; (3) High speed wind bands accompanied the northern side of the hurricane, while massive rain came in on the southward side, drenching South Miami, Perrine, and Homestead with over 12 inches of rain overnight. And now (4) there's talk that Katrina is going to swing upward back into the Florida panhandle by Tuesday.

2 deaths reported so far, mostly by falling trees. If you don't have emergency power, well, you don't have power. Word is at least 800,000 are without power. Fortunately my hotel's emergency system worked well, and (as you can tell) Internet is still up.

My client's building has minor water damage, no power and lots of fallen trees. The signage at the top of the 9 story building has missing letters. Work crews are already here but have told me the building is closed. My company's office building was in similar shape.

All the traffic lights are out - fortunately there isn't a lot of traffic to worry about - yet.

Downed trees are everywhere. No stores are open and I know finding ice is going to be a critical concern for people here. It could take days to get power restored.

I was asked what was like to stand outside in 70 MPH winds. To be honest, I don't know. I stayed indoors.

They say there's a fine line between brilliance and insanity, and I prefer to think that I'm brilliant.

I have a few pictures and I'll try to post them soon. In the meantime I'm going to try to find an open restaurant.

KATRINA HURRICANE REPORT
I think the worst is past now. The hurricane actually took a dip southward toward Miami, and I think I literally went out to dinner during the eye of the storm, which was a little eerie. Winds mostly around 20-40 mph when I went out, with mostly drizzly rain.

Went under an overpass under construction on the way out; it collapsed about an hour later when the winds picked up behind me. CNN has the video.

At the restaurant you could hear the wind howling through the airducts - it was loud. When I first got there I couldn't open the door, and I thought the restaurant had closed, but it was the wind holding the doors shut.

On the way home it was dark, rainy, and still windy, with downed trees everywhere. I ran over an alligator in the road.

Really.

Yes, it was crossing the road and I didn't see him until I was right on top of him. About 4 feet long. I felt absolutely terrible - right up to the tree that had fallen across the road. I had to turn around, and face my handiwork.

But it wasn't there.

Maybe it was tougher than I thought (I am driving a pretty small car this week). Or maybe it had enough strength left just to get off the road. I don't know. I wasn't going to get out of the car to find out.

Had to take a few other detours to get out of the way of fallem trees. That must be how I got a nail in my right rear tire. Now I can say that I've changed a tire in a hurricane. My life is complete. While changing the tire in the driving rain I saw huge green flashes everywhere. Not lightning...transformers exploding, I'll bet. I've seen it happen before.

More updates as I think to add them.

IT'S RAINING HORIZONTALLY NOW....
guess it's time to leave the office.

FORECAST FOR MIAMI: I'M GONNA GET DRENCHED...
Here is the latest view out of my office window, looking at Miami Airport:

Raining on and off right now, and the clouds are sweep north-to-south (left to right in the picture, as this is a NE view).



Fun fun fun. Maybe I'll wear a swimsuit to work tomorrow.

WANNA SEND A MESSAGE TO THE NEW POPE?
He has an email address: benedictxvi@vatican.va

(I wonder how many Viagra/Cialis ads he gets?)

THE REALLY GOOD NEWS ABOUT BUSH'S REELECTION...
...is that Bush is in an excellent position to appoint some excellent Supreme Court justices. With an even stronger Republican majority in the Senate and with obstructionist Minority Leader Tom Daschle out of the picture, we actually have a chance to put some balance back into the courts.

Liberal justices have held off on retirement, hoping to get a Democratic president to choose their replacement. But that strategy has probably backfired, since if they had retired this term Bush would have likely had to find justices with more moderate views to placate the backbiting minority.

NO GLOATING HERE....
It really could have turned out the other way. I'm in South Florida this week, and didn't get a chance to vote before I left, much to the griping and complaining of certain stalwart Republicans ("It's okay," I kept repeating, "the Republicans will carry Georgia!"). I would have been in for a lynching if Bush had lost by one vote. Fortunately I called Georgia correctly.

Here in Florida it clearly looked like Kerry Country. A toll booth operator, sporting a Kerry button, shouted, "VOTE FOR KERRY!" as I handed her my dollar. But most of the 'international' people I know here (Cubans, South Americans, Asians, etc) were leaning for Bush. One told me that 'they' were offering $50 to vote for Kerry. When I kept asking "who are 'they'?" I just got a shrug. I did my best to talk up Bush for the undecideds, and maybe got a few to go to the polls.

Not that *I* would take credit for Bush carrying Florida, of course....

MORE ON THE DRAFT…
It’s the non-issue that refuses to go away, thanks now to CBS. They spotlight a “Republican Mother” who will vote for Kerry if Bush plans to bring back the draft. The Media Research Center is all over the case.

But there’s more that MRC didn’t catch. Apparently the mother in question, Beverly Cocco is a chapter president for People Against the Draft. This group isn’t just anti-draft, it’s anti-war – and there’s clearly a hidden agenda that CBS either overlooked or chose to ignore.

Let’s say it right now: The draft isn’t going to happen. The Selective Service is in place in the event of a national defense emergency. It’s a prudent precaution in the event a major power, say, China, decides to attack the U.S. Using the draft to put boots on the ground in Iran, North Korea, etc. simply doesn’t make sense. The best article to date is here.

In any event, if I were in charge of CBS News, thanks to Rather's ridiculous 'fake but accurate' expose that aired two weeks ago, I would want to personally vet every program that went on the air until election day. But that organization is so ideologically driven that producers there aren't just wearing blinders, they're wearing toilet-paper-tube goggles. How much worse can they get?

FROM ONE .ORG TO ANOTHER - MOVEON!
The folks at moveon.org are upset because their beloved presidential candidate isn't looking good in the polls. Their solution? Shoot the messenger:

If John Kerry believed in the Gallup poll, he might as well give up. A couple of weeks ago, a highly publicized Gallup poll of “likely voters” showed President Bush with a staggering 14-point lead.

But wait a minute. Seven other polls of likely voters were released that same week. On average, they showed Bush with just a three-point lead. No one else came close to Gallup’s figures. And this isn’t the first time the prestigious Gallup survey has been out on a limb with pro-Bush findings.

Let's cut to the chase. Their concern is that disillusioned Democrats, seeing their champion on the ropes, will decide to skip out on election day and not bother to cast their vote on a losing candidate.

Hey, guys, it works both ways. I might decide to skip out on election day because if my guy is winning, I don't need to waste my time voting.

Gallup's numbers may be more accurate than those other polls. But moveon.org thinks it has a fair gripe about how those numbers are generated. Why? Because the owner (who isn't even involved in the polling operation of the company) is a Christian:

Gallup, who is a devout evangelical Christian, has been quoted as calling his polling “a kind of ministry....”

Oh, what a Neanderthal. They probably resort to tea leaves and animal sacrifices to pick the latest numbers, too.

Seriously, if there's an issue with the numbers, it will be apparent soon enough. From my own 'pollng', Kerry is going to get a harsh wakeup call on Election Day.

PS - IMAO calls the moveon.org folks 'zombies' - as in Night of the Living Dead - heh. And check out this article by liberal pundit Mystery Pollster.

SUDDENLY I DON'T FEEL SO HEALTHY
Living in the suburbs is hazardous to your health?

People who live in sprawling communities tend to suffer more health problems, according to the first study to document a link between the world of strip malls, cul-de-sacs and subdivisions and a broad array of ailments.

It's better to live in Manhattan than Atlanta, apparently. The evidence cited is pretty thin, though. Color me skeptical.

FINALLY - A REASON TO VOTE FOR KERRY!
Oh my.

Update: Link fixed.

REUTERS - BLECH...
I can't say I'm a big fan of international news agency Reuters. Their articles are slanted with a left-wing bias, and there's an anti-American taint to many of their stories (they're British). Of course, they think they're fair and balanced.

My biggest complaint by far, however, is that they don't know what a terrorist is. Because of an apparent unfamility with the English language, they don't seem to realize that a terrorist is one who deliberately targets to kill or injure innocents for a political cause. So, when a group of armed gunmen invade a school in Russia, hold children hostage, and shoot them in the back when they try to run, don't dare call them terrorists. Oh, no, they're militants. Ah. How nuanced.

But now the truth has been laid bare. I had thought that the reason they didn't use the terrorist label was because they're biased. Nope. It's because they're cowards. Apparently Reuters got upset when a subscribing paper added the banned word to an article:

"Our editorial policy is that we don't use emotive words when labeling someone," David A. Schlesinger, Reuters' global managing editor told the New York Times. "Any paper can change copy and do whatever they want. But if a paper wants to change our copy that way, we would be more comfortable if they remove the byline."

Schlesinger indicated changes like those made at CanWest could lead to "confusion" about what Reuters is reporting and possibly endanger its reporters in volatile areas or situations.

"My goal is to protect our reporters and protect our editorial integrity," he said.

How noble. Reuters, trying to make its mark in the Middle East, is concerned about intimidation from Muslim thugs.

I guess you wouldn't want to lose your press pass at PLO headquarters, would you, Reuters?

UPDATE: Just to underscore my point, Reuters publishes kooky news like this. Millions of felons unable to vote because of laws "that have roots in the post-Civil War 19th century"? Shocking! Where's the ACLU?

I LOVE THIS STORY....
Larry Elder's column has a great story about someone who was tired of having his Bush/Cheney yard signs stolen...check it out (skim past the Rathergate section).

I have an interesting yard sign story too - someday I'll post it....

WHOO-HOO! I NAILED ONE!
Four days ago I suggested that Democrats were hinting that the draft might be restored just to scare up votes. Turns out I was prescient....

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. Sept. 22, 2004 — Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, citing the war in Iraq and other trouble spots in the world, raised the possibility Wednesday that a military draft could be reinstated if voters re-elect President Bush.

(And he made his statement here in WPB? Ironic....)

Actually, talk about bad strategy. Why didn't he make that point on a college campus or something? In senior citizen laden Florida, he should have spent more time on the "Bush wants to trash Medicare" meme.

Heh. He should hire me to run his campaign. He still wouldn't win, but at least I'd keep it from looking like a McGovern/Dukakis upset.

UPDATE: Snopes has more on the drafting issue - looking more and more like a myth.

And here's what our military has to say about it.

And finally here's the word from Congress - the one pending bill - stuck in committee....